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Unicist Theory: The Fundamental Analysis is back in the Banking Business

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The past and the future are symmetric when nothing changes in an environment. But the speed of technological evolution increased the speed of changes in the market making evident that the past and the future are essentially asymmetric. In this scenario, fundamental analysis is the way to deal with business knowledge when a market evolves.

Fundamental analysis applied to financial decisions was born as a conceptual approach to businesses but was transformed into a meaningless operational approach.

The Unicist Theory made the development of the fundamentals of businesses possible that allowed managing their concepts. This made the integration of fundamental knowledge and technical knowledge possible, which allowed building reliable knowledge for decision making.

The Basics: Fundamental Analysis & Technical Analysis

Complex problem solving requires having the concept that describes the nature of the solution, the actions that need to be implemented to expand the existing boundaries of the problem and the technical knowledge to develop the minimum strategy to produce results. Concepts can be apprehended when the fundamentals of the solution have been integrated.

Knowledge Acquisition

Fundamental knowledge without technical knowledge fosters “movement fallacies”. Technical knowledge without fundamental knowledge fosters “inaction fallacies”.

It has to be considered that the intrinsic structures of fundamental knowledge and of technical knowledge are opposite to each other, but their effects are complementary to build a solution.

That is why only people who can deal with the integration of these oppositions can apprehend concepts. This is the case of the universal apparent dichotomy of yin and yang.

The Unicist Theory, based on the discovery of the ontogenetic intelligence of nature, allowed developing the unicist ontological structure of fundamentals, which made fundamental analysis “resurrect from the ashes”.

Fundamental analysis is supposed to deal with the drivers of the nature of any entity but was transformed, probably influenced by technical analysis, into an analytic approach to standardized indicators.

The Unicist Theory provided the framework to research and discover the fundamentals of an entity and defined the structure of their integration.

The symbol of Yin and Yang, representing the TAO, necessarily emulates the structure of the ontogenetic intelligence of nature and is homologous with the Unicist Logic. If you are not aware of the scientific use of the TAO, we recommend reading the book “Tao of Physics” by Fritjof Capra.

Fundamentals are the elements that define the functionality of an entity.

They define the structure of an entity´s unicist ontology and allow building its ontogenetic map.

Fundamental analysis is the approach that defines the limits of the possibilities of the evolution of a given reality.

Fundamentals define the boundaries implicit in the functionality of a given reality.

Technical analysis deals with the cause-effect relation between “variables” that have been identified making a systemic compromise.

The discovery of the unicist ontology of evolution and the structure of concepts that regulate the evolution of living beings and their deeds established the structure for fundamental analysis integrating it with technical analysis in order to develop reliable knowledge.

Knowledge of Adaptive Systems

Technical knowledge is popular because it is based on dualistic logic which is functional to the use of “binary neurons”. Fundamental knowledge requires accessing a double dialectical logic which requires an action-reflection-action process. That is why fundamental knowledge is associated with wisdom.

The purpose of a knowledge acquisition process is to obtain reliable knowledge.

Reliable knowledge is necessary when individuals are willing to ensure a minimum strategy or are exposed to uncertain or risky environments.

In everyday activities only operational knowledge is required.

This ontology is a final synthesis of the use of fundamental and technical analysis in the world of economic, social and business behavior.

Fundamentals describe the ontology of a given reality considered as a unified field. Technical analysis describes the cause-effect relations of a reality considered as a systemic object.

When working in a known context there is only need for feedback (operational analysis), an analytic approach and intuitive / rational decision making.

Knowledge Acquisition

Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis are intrinsically opposite approaches for knowledge acquisition, but they are operational complements when reliable knowledge needs to be acquired. The natural pathway to knowledge acquisition begins by accessing the fundamentals, that define “what” is being done, and continues with the technical knowledge that defines “how” the operational solution will be achieved.

Technical analysis provides sufficient information and the necessary cause-effect groundings to make decisions.

When the context is uncertain the understanding of fundamentals is necessary.

Fundamentals are defined by the concepts that regulate the evolution of a fact.

Validation processes naturally degrade into fallacies when they do not include falsification processes.

Validation implies a non-destructive test and falsification is a destructive test measuring the accuracy and limits of a knowledge.

When a reliable knowledge is required to deal with minimum strategies, risks or uncertainty, the integration of technical and fundamental analysis is required.

The Business Intelligence Strategy

The driver of knowledge acquisition is the need for groundings in order to achieve a reliable knowledge to make decisions. Groundings are necessary when dealing with complexity (i.e. minimum strategies), risk or uncertainty.

The minimum strategy is given by technical analysis to provide the necessary cause-effect knowledge. The maximal strategy to influence the environment is given by the knowledge of the fundamentals.

The catalyst to accelerate the building of reliable knowledge with a minimum strategy is conceptual knowledge. Conceptual knowledge establishes the secure limits of cause-effect knowledge.

Fundamental analysis and technical analysis provide the operational structure to achieve the objective of having reliable knowledge to make decisions.

When technical analysis is not integrated with fundamental analysis it naturally derives into analogical/hypothetical knowledge. When reliable knowledge is needed both approaches must be integrated.

Synthesis

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the approach that defines the limits of the possibilities of the evolution of a given reality. Fundamentals define the boundaries implicit in the functionality of that given reality.

Although adaptive systems and complex systems have open boundaries, they can only be managed when limits have been defined.

Defining limits based on the fundamentals of a given reality implies dealing with its nature and accepting its evolution laws. In the short or the long run the evolution of a given reality will drive towards its nature.

Fundamental analysis provides the tools to describe the nature of a reality in order to forecast its evolution. Evolution can be inhibited and catalyzed by human actions; but it cannot be changed.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis deals with the cause-effect relation between “variables” that have been identified by making a systemic compromise.

In order to be able to manage a reality in everyday actions it is necessary to define it with systemic tools.

Systemic tools are based on cause-effect relations and therefore the result of transforming a complex reality into a simple system downgrades the possibilities of success. In technical analysis success becomes probabilistic.

Fundamental analysis defines the possibilities (0 or 1) and technical analysis defines the probabilities (from 0 to 1).

Fundamental analysis has been downgraded during the last 30 years. As there were no objective tools to approach it, it was considered as the “subjective” aspects of technical analysis.

The discovery of the unicist ontology of evolution and the structure of the concept that regulate the evolution of living beings and their deeds, established the structure for fundamental analysis integrating it with technical analysis in order to develop reliable knowledge.

Peter Belohlavek

NOTE: The Unicist Research Institute was the pioneer in using the unicist logical approach in complexity science research and became a private global decentralized leading research organization in the field of human adaptive systems. It has an academic arm and a business arm.
https://www.unicist.net/financials/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/turi.pdf


Stock markets depend on the trend towards evolution

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The evolution of markets is what makes them more reliable. Thus, markets that evolve, naturally establish a context that allows making businesses.

Investment requires an evolution context and speculation is more profitable in involution contexts. Therefore investments foster evolution and speculation fosters involution.

About Evolution and Involution

The double dialectical process that produces the double pendulum generates a high level of entropy in each movement.

The higher the level of evolution, the smaller is the amplitude of the pendulum and the lower is the entropy.

Theoretically, evolution could drive towards perfection, where materialistic and non-materialistic reality is one. At this level reality as it is perceived by humans could not exist.

But this is just hypothetical. Real life includes involution, which occurs when a specific object becomes dysfunctional to the environment.

Thus involution begins including increasing amplitude of the double dialectical pendulum.

This implies increasing entropy between the positions, generating a trend in which the loss of energy that occurs between the polarities generates an involving trend.

Involution drives toward the death of the object, its mutation or its recovery, when it finds a source of energy to compensate the involution trend and begins an evolution cycle.

In any case, it implies a new object with a different energy level with or without mutations.

Diana Belohlavek

NOTE: The Unicist Research Institute was the pioneer in using the unicist logical approach in complexity science research and became a private global decentralized leading research organization in the field of human adaptive systems. It has an academic arm and a business arm.
http://www.unicist.org/repo/#Unicist


Unicist Forecast of the Evolution of Markets

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The Unicist Approach to Future Research is based on the research of the unicist ontogenetic intelligence of nature that started at the beginning of the 80’s.

It was a step by step discovery based on the apprehension of the nature of social phenomena entering afterwards in the institutional and individual evolution. Its integration with biology and physics was the final stage that was achieved.

This approach is based on the fact that future and past are not symmetric. This is the case of all the environments that are evolving or involving. The past and the future are only symmetric in stagnated environments.

The objective of the unicist approach to future research is to define a future scenario in order to adapt and influence it.

When an individual “looks back” at the history, the events that occurred are reasonable, understandable and logical. Therefore when approaching the future what is required is having the “logic” that is evident when analyzing the events of the past.

The building of future scenarios is based on the fact that the structure of the unicist ontology of a specific environment needs to be found in the past and that the facts of the present are used to infer the future.

The unicist approach to future research is based on inferring the future based on the laws of evolution established by the ontogenetic intelligence of nature, which allowed developing the unicist ontology of evolution.

This allows building reliable future scenarios.

Diana Belohlavek

NOTE: The Unicist Research Institute was the pioneer in using the unicist logical approach in complexity science research and became a private global decentralized leading research organization in the field of human adaptive systems. It has an academic arm and a business arm.
https://www.unicist.net/financials/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/turi-1.pdf


Pilot testing: The core of a pragmatic approach to business

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Doers are natural users of pilot tests because they provide the security that what they are doing will work.

Pilot testing implies testing a functionality and requires a precise design of the tests. The “trial and error” applications are not pilot tests. Pilot tests must include both destructive and non destructive tests.

Pilot tests are the drivers of the unicist reflection processes. Pilot tests have two objectives:

  1. Destructive Testing
  2. Non-destructive Testing

1) Destructive Testing

Falsification, in the field of complex problems, implies finding the limits of the validity of a given knowledge. To do so, it is necessary to develop experiences in homologous fields until the limits of validity are found.

Two elements are homologous when they have the same “nature”. A whale and a dog (an extreme example) are homologous if they are considered as mammals. A dollar and a yen are homologous considering that they are both money.

2) Non-destructive testing

Validation implies the factual confirmation of the validity of knowledge. Validation is achieved when knowledge suffices to exert influence on a reality in a predictable way.

The validation process is homologous to a non-destructive test in the field of material research. Validation implies cause-effect relations. Therefore, validation can only be applied to a simplified field of a complex reality.

Conclusion

Pilot tests must include both non-destructive and destructive tests. The application of destructive tests requires being aware of the concepts of the realities where this test is applied.

Knowledge is secure when its validity and its limits were found. Exceptions to this rule are universal natural laws which are “universally homologous”.

Diego Belohlavek

NOTE: The Unicist Research Institute was the pioneer in complexity science research and became a private global decentralized world-class research organization in the field of human adaptive systems. http://www.unicist.org


The Factor Zero – The power of nil – Part IV

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Complex adaptive systems are integrated by a conjunction of “objects”. Mathematically, this integration of objects implies a multiplication of their representative factors. If one of them is “zero”, the whole adaptive system doesn’t work.

Factor ZeroAdaptive systems cannot allow the existence of zeros. One zero suffices to destroy a system.

The Factor “Zero” is an anti-concept that destroys any adaptive system. It establishes the groundings for inaction, annulment or destruction.

The ontology of the factor “zero” describes how human inaction, annulment or destruction is sustained by a fallacious ethics.

It is the ethics of stagnant survivors that provides them a feeling of superiority based on their capacity to hinder value adding actions in their area of influence.

Factor “zero” is the integration of suspicion, doubt and unawareness in order to avoid the responsibility of an adaptive system and destroy it.

It suffices if one of these elements exists. We will use the ontological structure to define them:

The purpose of suspicion is distrust. This implies that the final objective of the factor zero is to install distrust in order to destroy what threatens the individual.

It adopts extremely subtle disguises in order to work. If not it would be noticeable and avoidable. Usually, when the factor zero is perceived it is because it already worked.

Suspicion is driven by the fear an individual feels in a situation and the guilt of being unable to deal with it. The active function of the factor “zero” is given by the doubt individuals have when dealing with adaptive systems.

Doubt is basically driven by the individuals’ super-ego and operationally by their superiority complexes, the counterpart of inferiority complexes, and their unwillingness to make trade-offs with the reality they work in.

The energy conservation function of the factor “zero” is given by the unawareness individuals have of the situation they are living in.

Unawareness requires learning avoidance in order to exist. The learning capacity is sustained by the energy conservation principle given by the inferiority complexes of individuals. Operationally, learning avoidance and inferiority complexes define unawareness.

At an operational level the factor “zero” can be considered as the consequence of integrating doubt, unawareness, human complexes and price paying avoidance.

Diego Belohlavek

NOTE: The Unicist Research Institute was the pioneer in using the unicist logical approach in complexity science research and became a private global decentralized leading research organization in the field of human adaptive systems. It has an academic arm and a business arm. https://www.unicist.net/financials/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/turi.pdf


Unicist Innovations in Corporate Finance

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Financial aspects are “consequences” seen from the point of view of a company but “causes” when they are seen from the point of view of shareholders. The innovation introduced by the use of unicist ontology based and object driven technologies allowed developing a framework to manage maximal and minimum strategies to ensure results where causes and consequences are integrated.

Fundamental analysis, which is based on the unicist ontology, is what provides the understanding of actions and technical analytical information sustains the energy conservation in a company. The following description will give the basics of the innovation.

The activities of the Unicist Confederation are expanding based on the introduction of the unicist ontology and business objects driven technologies.

The Object Driven Organization of the adaptive aspects of businesses is the technology included in all the “solutions” for business optimization.

The Confederation itself also uses business objects for its growth. These objects ensure the critical mass of the solutions it provides to the market. Business solutions require the use of driving, catalyzing and gravitational business objects.

1) The business objects are the drivers of the activity providing the solutions that generate significant energy savings and optimization of results to their users.

2) The unicist approach, including diagnoses, strategies and architectures of the solutions is the catalyst of the Confederation’s proposals.

3) The emulation of nature in business is the gravitational object that sustains the activities of the Confederation.

This approach segments the market. Basically, it can be said that the object driven approach is necessary for business expansion and convenient for business administration.

NOTE: The Unicist Research Institute was the pioneer in complexity science research and became a global decentralized world-class research organization in the field of human adaptive systems. https://www.unicist.net/financials/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/turi.pdf


The unicist business strategy scorecard

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The unicist scorecard is an objective strategy validation system. Its purpose is to validate the functionality of business action plans. It is integrated by a Business Marketplace Index (BMI), a Business Credibility Index (BCI) and a Business Growth Index (BGI).

The integration of these indexes defines the possibility and probability to achieve the goals proposed in a strategy.

These indexes are built on objective information. Based on their origin, the information included can be classified in:

  1. Quantitative information
  2. Quantitative perceptions
  3. Quantified opinions

The Unicist Scorecard is a complementary concept to the Balanced Scorecard. While the Balanced Scorecard is a bottom-up tool to approach the execution of strategies, the Unicist Scorecard is a top-down tool to sustain the building of strategies.

We invite you to be our guest at the Unicist Library to learn about “Hyperrealism in Business”: http://www.unicist.com

Diana Belohlavek
VP Global Markets
& Market Labs

NOTE: The Unicist Research Institute is a pioneer in complexity science research. More than 4,000 ontological researches were developed since 1976 until July 2011 in the field of individual, institutional and social evolution, including the development of ontology based and business object driven solutions for businesses.


Unicist Logical Approach: Survival guerrilla confrontation

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The survival guerrilla confrontation happens between most of the small organizations, entrepreneurs and professionals who have not developed a brand or a stable space in a market.

Survival Guerrilla ConfrontationThe survival guerrilla confrontation occurs beyond the ethics of a market. Materialistic survival is all what counts in this strategy.

The survival guerrilla confrontation occurs beyond the ethics of a market. Materialistic survival is all what counts in this strategy.

Since what counts are only material things, to be able to survive is the most important feature in this confrontation.

In this case, the marginal participants have two different ways to survive:

  1. Attacking innovators
  2. Attacking “retarded” competitors

There are no rules in these confrontations and they are common in the marginal small business segment.  Those who are able to survive having a competitive product or service become competitors of the market.

In underdeveloped countries, survival guerrilla confrontations prevail in the market and they legitimate market uncertainty. In developed countries they represent the marginal sectors of the economy.

The losers of this survival guerrilla confrontation disappear.

Unicist Press Committee

NOTE: The Unicist Research Institute was the pioneer in complexity science research and became a private global decentralized leading research organization in the field of human adaptive systems. http://www.unicist.org


Every strategy has an ideology defined by the strategist

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The Unicist Logical Approach defines that an ideology is a belief that uses a defined technology to sustain a specific interest. As there are no strategies but strategists, individuals project their ideology on any strategy they might be building. This ideology is basically influenced by their strategic intelligence and their type of logical thought while its purpose is implicit in the ethical intelligence they are using.

Strategic IdelologyThere are four ontological segments within the strategic ideology:

  • Creators
  • Conservatives
  • Security Seekers
  • Freedom Seekers

Creators

Their understanding of reality is based on their understanding of facts.

There are two kinds of creators, those based on an operational approach to reality and those based on a conceptual approach.

They transcend through their deeds, and apprehend reality based on personal immersion.

Operation driven creators use analogical approaches and concept driven creators use analogical and homological approaches.

Conservatives

They are idea-driven strategists with a strong analytical and/or systemic approach to problem solving.

There are thematic driven conservatives and systemic driven conservatives. They both seek for security while tending to focus on thematic or systemic solutions.

They transcend through their ideas.

They have a top-down / theory-practice approach to reality. They approach reality based on thematic homologies and factual analogies.

Security seekers

Security seekers are individuals that influence reality with frontal or flank proactive actions.

Flank actions are usually focused on exposing the implicit weaknesses that are present within the strengths of competitors.

Frontal actions seek for influencing through superiority. They use to confront with competitors strengths.

Frontals understand the ideas of their opponents and are effective when they are objectively superior.

They are democratic in the fields in which they are talented and autocratic in the fields in which they are not.

Freedom seekers

They are individuals that influence reality based on innovative actions and/or focused solutions. Therefore, there are two kinds of freedom seekers: innovators and focused solution builders.

Innovative action builders seek for the occupation of empty spaces and the expansion of business possibilities.

Actions of “Focused solution builders” are based on the introduction of alternative paradigms.

They are natural innovators, artisans and artists.

Peter Belohlavek

NOTE: The Unicist Research Institute was the pioneer in using the unicist logical approach in complexity science research and became a private global decentralized leading research organization in the field of human adaptive systems. It has an academic arm and a business arm.
https://www.unicist.net/financials/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/turi.pdf


Managing Businesses as Adaptive Systems

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Businesses are, by definition, adaptive systems that need to evolve in an adapted way in an environment. Therefore, knowledge is essential to manage businesses. Knowledge implies having the necessary information to make decisions and implementing them in order to generate a business.

Reliable knowledge can be achieved when the fundamental knowledge and the technical analytical knowledge have been acquired.

Fundamental analysis is the approach that defines the limits of the possibilities of the evolution of a given reality. Fundamentals define the boundaries implicit in the functionality of such reality.

Technical analysis deals with the cause-effect relation between “variables” that have been identified making a systemic compromise.

The discovery of the unicist theory of evolution and the structure of concepts that regulate the evolution of living beings and their deeds established the structure for fundamental analysis integrating it with technical analysis in order to develop reliable knowledge.

While technical analytical knowledge uses predominantly a dualistic logic, Fundamentals knowledge is based on the use of integrative logic.

Press Committee

NOTE: The Unicist Research Institute was the pioneer in using the unicist logical approach in complexity science research and became a private global decentralized leading research organization in the field of human adaptive systems. It has an academic arm and a business arm.
http://www.unicist.org/repo/#Unicist